Investing in the U.S. Latino Future

You would have to be perhaps in another planet to ignore the fact that the face of the United States is changing. The stereotype of Americans as blond and blue-eyed is on the way out. And by 2042, whites will become a minority and by 2050 Hispanics will be more than one-fourth of the population.

This demographic shift is the basis for a new book, "Latinos and the Nation's Future," edited by former Housing Secretary Henry Cisneros. With essays by some of the most prominent Latino and immigration leaders and scholars in the country, the book is a serious attempt at exploring what the shift means for the future of the United States.

While the authors want to believe that the best days are still ahead, they know that will only be a possibility if they speak honestly about Latinos' current underperformance. As Cisneros writes, it is critical to ask whether the Latino population "will be large and undereducated, undercompensated, alienated and a divisive force on the American scene ... or ... a large, and educated, creative, prosperous and an energetic part of the American story?"

As a cautionary tale, Cisneros cites California, where Latino student underperformance has dragged its academic ranking down to 45th among the 50 states. Nationwide, if educational outcome for Latinos does not improve now, the United States could experience a shortage of 12 million college-educated workers by 2020 when nearly a quarter of the U.S. college-age population will be Latino. That would mean having a less competitive work force than ever before, warns Sarita Brown, founding president of Excelencia in Education.

Also, according to the U.S. Census American Community Survey of 2008, there is a $25,000 gap between the average household income among non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics. Moreover, as Harry Pachon, director of Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, points out, there is clear potential for "multigenerational poverty" among Hispanics, particularly for those children of immigrants raised in inner cities where poor schools and high crime are common and the likelihood of gang participation and teenage pregnancy increases.

Certainly the onus is on Latinos, particularly its 40 percent of newcomers, to learn English, have an unabashed commitment to education and, as Cisneros puts it, reinforce "our capacity to help build the nation in which we have such stake."

To a degree, this sort of bootstrapping is already occurring and should temper the pessimistic outlook of many. The number of Latinos enrolled in postsecondary education climbed almost 25 percent between 2000 and 2004. It is also widely known that demand for English language classes among immigrants often exceeds supply.

The immigration expert Tamar Jacoby argues that to do more than modestly progress, Latinos need a greater sense of belonging. Among various physical and psychological degrees of investment in America, naturalization represents "a critical tipping point ... when many begin to say 'we' rather than 'they,"' she writes and cites a study that found that children of Mexican-born mothers who have become citizens are twice as likely to graduate from college as those born to women who have not naturalized.

Cisneros builds on this point by arguing that the onus is also on American society as a whole to "reinvigorate its progressive instincts," and promote Latinos' ascendancy into the middle class. That would mean getting to the point where Americans accept as politically and economically expedient naturalization and moreover immigration reform.

Indeed much of Hispanics' and the country's future success hinges on reforming the U.S.' broken immigration system. As long as the nation keeps allowing some 10 million workers to be in this society but not be full members of it, there is no way anyone can expect them to feel more committed to its future.

But it is much more than the technicalities of legalization or citizenship. A group of Latino leaders have recognized the need of personal long-term investment and have set up a 15-year "life plan" that establishes specific goals to ensure Latinos become better integrated to this country. Cisneros also announced plans to start a nonprofit to help in that process.

In an interview after the book presentation at the Center for American Progress, Cisneros acknowledged that a focus on helping Latinos help this country may provide a better framework for an immigration debate that in recent years has simply become too contentious to be productive.

Suggesting that the growth of Latinos could contribute to U.S. decline will certainly provide fodder to those who see the transforming face of this nation as a threat. But Cisneros didn't seem worried. "For someone to conclude from this message," he said, "that these are dire circumstances for this country, they probably believe that already. What we are trying to do is show the path out of that kind of destiny."