A 'Reset Button' for Venezuela Too

Relations with Venezuela could use a reset button. Those of us who follow U.S. Latin America policy and read Vice President Joseph Biden's speech offering to "press the reset button" on relations with Moscow can't be blamed for hoping that the administration would offer the same to Caracas.

The White House billed Biden's speech in Germany over the weekend as a guide to the Obama administration's foreign policy. So to hear an Obama senior official say something along the lines that the United States and Venezuela "can disagree and still work together where our interests coincide" may not be a pipe dream.

Unfortunately that's not the message we've heard so far. In an interview on Univision days before the inauguration, Obama seemed to fall back into the antagonistic rhetoric of the past, calling Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez "a destructive force in the region." To that, Chavez, also falling into the old pattern, responded by saying that Obama had "the same stench" as President Bush, whom he once accused of leaving a sulfur smell after speaking at the United Nations.

But Chavez did not hold to that hard line very long. He knows that Obama enjoys a lot of good will throughout Latin America and in that same initial reaction he sought to excuse the incoming U.S. president, saying Obama was a victim rather than the head of the evil empire.

Also, in a column published five days after the inauguration, Chavez paraphrased a line from Obama's speech offering to extend his hand if the United States unclenched its fist. Until then he would adopt a wait-and-see attitude. This is a gentler Chavez for sure.

But the Venezuelan leader's moderation is not simply a function of Obama's appeal. In fact, the Obama administration is likely to find now in Chavez a more willing partner, having had to moderate himself in more ways than one in recent months.

Last year, oil represented more than 95 percent of the country's exports, and as much as half of that went to the United States. With oil prices dropping and his Bolivarian revolution highly dependent on the well-being of the U.S. economy, Chavez has a keen interest in Obama's success in overcoming the current U.S. recession.

In Venezuelan politics, Chavez also has had to mellow his tone. Ever since the defeat in 2007 of a referendum that would have scrapped term limits and expanded Chavez's power, and particularly since the defeat of his party's candidates in the country's largest cities and wealthiest and most populous provinces last November, Chavez faces a more serious and solid opposition that he cannot continue to dismiss simply as coup-plotters.

Obama thus has before him a set of circumstances that should help improve relations with Venezuela. Or as Venezuelan professor Margarita Lopez Maya, currently at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, put it, the United States "has the perfect opportunity to extend a hand."

An easy gesture to that end would be to condemn the U.S. response during the short-lived coup against Chavez in 2002. The White House's quick and easy embrace of his undemocratic ouster by pro-U.S. business leaders made any U.S. talk of promoting democracy in Venezuela and throughout Latin America sound hypocritical at best.

Such a rapprochement could leave Chavez short of his usual excuses -- such as the threat of a U.S. invasion -- that have helped him rally support and allowed him to deflect criticism and distract the public from his government's failures.

But more importantly, it would restore some U.S. credibility. From that new perch, the Obama administration could articulate some of the differences it should raise with Chavez, such as his concentration of power, his erosion of democratic institutions and the notion that he is indispensable.

Just on this last point, less than 14 months since the 2007 defeat, Chavez is calling on Venezuelans to vote again this weekend on a referendum that would allow him to run for re-election indefinitely. Also, in a Feb. 2 interview in Spanish on CNN to commemorate his 10 years in office, Chavez said he has no plan to groom a successor.

While Obama might praise Chavez's concern with the plight of the poor, he should question the wisdom of not ensuring what he has done for them can be sustained beyond Chavez. Or as Jennifer McCoy, senior director of the Carter Center's Americas Program, asked at a recent event on Venezuela here in Washington, If Venezuela's revolution "is really so dependent on a single person, then how much revolutionary change has been accomplished?"

Such questions and criticisms would be a lot harder to dismiss as imperialistic interference if both Obama's standing remains high and the United States has recaptured some of its credibility in the region.