Valenzuela's Sticky Welcome

Finally, President Obama's Latin America team has its leader. Six months after his nomination, Arturo Valenzuela was sworn in on Nov. 10 as the top U.S. diplomat in the region: head of the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs at the State Department. Now Obama's "new chapter of engagement" between the United States and its southern neighbors can begin in earnest.

The problem is that, in the process of securing Valenzuela's confirmation, the State Department committed a tactical error -- one that threatens to jeopardize months of work toward ending the Honduran crisis, as well as the good will Obama and his administration have generated in the region.

Valenzuela's confirmation had been stalled in the Senate, thanks to Republican Jim DeMint of South Carolina. DeMint, exercising his prerogative as a senator, put a hold on the confirmation, because he disagreed with the Obama administration's condemnation of the June 28 coup against Honduran President Manuel Zelaya.

Then, on Nov. 5, DeMint withdrew his objections and said he would no longer block Valenzuela. In a statement, DeMint explained that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Assistant Secretary Thomas Shannon "have assured me that the U.S. will recognize the outcome of the Honduran elections regardless of whether Manuel Zelaya is reinstated."

But the State Department's assurances show a blatant disregard for the rest of the world, and regional leaders in particular. Zelaya's reinstatement has been the keystone of the international community's demands and the one concession that Roberto Micheletti, leader of the de facto regime, had refused to make. In fact, it wasn't until Shannon made a trip to Tegucigalpa in late October that Micheletti agreed to Zelaya's possible reinstatement, pending a Congressional vote.

But Shannon's diplomatic victory quickly unraveled. The same day DeMint made his pronouncement, Micheletti reneged on the agreement and announced that he would continue to lead -- now as president of the "unity government" that had been agreed upon just a week earlier.

Now Valenzuela will have to deal with this new extension of the crisis, and unfortunately, there isn't much time. The Nov. 29 presidential elections in Honduras -- in which neither Micheletti nor Zelaya are candidates -- are quickly approaching, and most leaders in the Americas insist they won't recognize the results if Zelaya is not first reinstated.

U.S. diplomats, in contrast, appear to be siding with Micheletti, who has long billed the vote as the democratic solution to the crisis. Meanwhile, Zelaya's supporters and other frustrated Hondurans may opt to boycott the election, further diluting its legitimacy.

Valenzuela has arrived on the scene at a "very delicate moment," Jennifer McCoy, director of the Carter Center's Americas Program, observed in an interview. Not only does he have to deal with the factions in Honduras but also with those now emerging elsewhere in the region.

Moreover, in his first days in office, Valenzuela is "basically at his weakest possible position when we need him at his strongest," observed a Democratic congressional staffer who wished to remain anonymous.

If Valenzuela cannot help to legitimize the Honduran elections, the crisis could drag on indefinitely. Without international support for the new government, many sanctions will likely continue and the country could become even more isolated -- causing more harm than good for the poorest citizens of an already poor nation. This could lead to the rise of a leader even more polarizing than Zelaya.

Beyond Honduras, the fissure in the united front against the coup may forecast new divisions in U.S.-Latin American relations. This week, a group of U.S. academics warned Obama in an open letter that the U.S. is heading down an isolationist path in the Americas. The group wrote that it regretted that "the United States is at odds with the rest of the Hemisphere in its stated willingness to recognize" the Honduran elections.

"We are back to the old dynamic of everyone against the U.S.," the congressional source said.

Not quite yet: In the old dynamic, confrontational Latin American leaders from the left would be having a field day denouncing U.S. imperialism and impositions. Instead, they've remained noticeably silent, as if still hoping for more constructive engagement.

One hopes that this ongoing debacle won't fully erase the goodwill and optimism that prevailed in Latin America after Obama was elected a year ago. Progress on issues such as security, energy, climate change, poverty and relations with Cuba hinge on cooperation and mutual good will.

Bernard Aronson, one of Valenzuela's predecessors, believes that Valenzuela's primary challenge here in Washington will be to draw high-level attention to the region at a time when U.S. priorities lie elsewhere. Without it, U.S. policy is much more likely to become reactive rather than proactive -- and, by extension, less cooperative.

As Aronson put it, the U.S. "gets in trouble when we fail to work with the region to address problems before they turn into crisis."